There is no hotter hitter in the American League to start the 2023 Major League Baseball regular season than Blue Jays third baseman, Matt Chapman. Chapstick has been raking on baseballs to start the season for Toronto, leading the league in average exit velocity at 98.8mph (which would be a career high, by the way) and barrel rate at a whopping 32.4% (which would be almost double a career high, by the way). Chapman’s whiff rate and strikeout rate are also much better than his usuals, but they’re not that great compared to the rest of the league, along with his other peripherals. He’s had much better success at putting the ball in play this season, which has lifted him atop the doubles and hits leaderboards. His expected batting average is actually much lower than his second-best-in-baseball batting average, which isn’t a bad thing, it just means that he’s collecting so many extra-base hits that aren't home runs, but are still super valuable.
Put all that gobbledygook together, and you get a player that might be having as sustainable a good start as you can hope. Mechanically, it looks like Chapman is setting up with his hands closer to his body when he swings, which, by all way-to-early MVP rankings, seems to be working for him. He had a down year in his first season north of the border in 2022, but if he and the Blue Jays can keep up their hot hitting, all signs point to at least a few renditions of “Oh, Canada” in October. The one problem for the Blue Jays moving forward, however, is that Chapman is a free agent after this season. So, let’s talk about a Blue Jays-Matt Chapman mid-season extension that could work for both sides. I would say a shorter deal with an average annual value north of $23 million would be worth it all-around. Here’s why.
The best extensions I can use to make any assumptions as to what seems like fair compensation for Matt Chapman are the Manny Machado extension that he signed with the Padres before this season and the Ian Happ-Cubs deal that was agreed upon just a few days ago. Machado and Chapman play the same primary position, third base, and are both known for their gloves at the hot corner, in addition to their bats. Happ was going to be a free agent after 2023 and you can make the argument that, besides Shohei Ohtani, he and Chapman would’ve both been towards the tops of teams’ wish lists, come the 2023 Winter Meetings. Manny’s deal is worth $350 million over 11 years, starting in 2023, while Ian’s deal is for $61 million over three years, starting in 2024. Alright, now let’s get to Chapstick.
Matt Chapman’s notorious strikeout totals and undiversified power have hindered his production throughout his career. He isn’t on the same tier of third basemen as Machado or Nolan Arenado, but he might have the same skills at fielding the third base position as the heralded Nasty Nolan. Either way, he just doesn’t have the track record as some big-named third basemen to warrant a long contract. A shorter deal works well for Chapman because his new swing could revolutionize his skillset, which could earn him a much larger contract in the future. As for yearly compensation, Happ has set the tone by agreeing to a deal that will pay him a little over $20 million a season. Chapman has put up better numbers than Happ in previous seasons and could put up monster numbers by the end of 2023, which would easily make him worth more than Happ’s annual earnings.
As for the Blue Jays, a short-term, high AAV contract with Matt Chapman would work for a few reasons. Their starting pitching is quite boom-or-bust, while their lineup is what puts them in contention for 2023, and presumably beyond. Additionally, a Chapman contract would serve as leverage for Toronto in signing some of their other big offensive pieces in the future, like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. Plus, Chapman is showing that he’s just plain good, and the Blue Jays should want to keep good players, especially players that have won a Platinum Glove.
With all of this information in place, here’s a scenario I can envision. In mid-May, if Matt Chapman’s torrid pace stays golden, relative to expected regression, obviously, then the Blue Jays could realistically offer him a four-year, $100 million extension that would keep him in the land of poutine until after the 2027 season. I don’t know about you guys, but that sounds like a deal that Matt Chapman could certainly get behind.
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