It’s January, meaning that in just under three weeks, we will know the full list of who will be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, New York in July! Jim Leyland, former World Series manager of the Marlins and Tigers, was announced in December as an inductee following the eras committee vote, but now it’s time for the BBWAA to shine. We all know the rules: ten years on the ballot, each voter gets ten votes, and you need 75% to get in. Simple, right? Yes, in the sense that the rules are clear, but no in the sense that induction is not a monolith.
As an amateur baseball historian and still-memorizer of every World Series winner, Hall of Fame candidacy is kind of my bread and butter when it comes to writing about this sport, and it’s also my favorite subculture of baseball fandom. There’s nothing better or that’s more pedantic about America’s most pedantic game than a bunch of nobodies arguing about which players that they never watched in person deserve little plaque in an obscure building in upstate New York. Ah, baseball, a marketing behemoth. Sarcasm aside, I do love the Hall, and after studying its inductees for over a decade, I’ve come to realize that there’s a science to understanding how it works. I’ve tried to quantify it before, but as my own tastes and the Hall’s objective precedents keep changing, so does my rubric, so I won’t bother you with that gobbledygook now. Instead, let’s just look at the ballot for 2024 and understand where everyone fits categorically.
The Shoo-In
There’s no doubt that Adrian Beltre is a Hall of Famer on paper, and because he falls into the Piazza-Bagwell category of steroid users, he’s a first-balloter for sure. Beltre is the only shoo-in on the ballot in 2024, which makes sense, considering he just kept playing. He never slowed down on the field as his career came to an end with the Rangers, and his numbers suggest that, too. Will Beltre be unanimous? Probably not, but it wouldn’t shock me.
The Fan Favorite Newcomers
Joe Mauer, David Wright, and Chase Utley represent their teams proudly as first-timers of the Hall’s consideration. In my mind, Mauer is the only one that will earn substantial votes this year, but Wright and Utley will certainly garner some attention from Mets and Phillies fans alike (notice how I didn’t say “respectively). This is a national vote, however, so even if New York and Philadelphia are baseball havens, it won’t help much. Interestingly, though, being a fan favorite does help Hall of Fame chances, but only in extreme cases. Could Mauer be one of those cases?
The Holdovers
We have some geezers on the ballot, that’s for sure. Todd Helton should be in, and so should Billy Wagner and Andruw Jones. I can’t believe they’ve been on the ballot for as long as they have, but that’s the Hall of Fame for ya. Helton gets hampered because of the Coors Effect, Wagner is a closer, and Jones should get in on his defense, which is only a recently established precedent thanks to Scott Rolen. They all came close last year, so it’s just a matter of time.
The Debatables
This is your sign-stealing, steroid-taking, and lawsuit-garnering category. The Hall has had this category of players since the Steroid Era fellas made their way onto the ballot in the early 2010s, and the category isn’t going away any time soon. The Debatables don't trend in the right direction in terms of voting percentage or reputation year-over-year, but I’ve been surprised before.
The Rest
I’ve always been a big Torii Hunter guy and Ken Rosenthal recently made a great argument for voting in Jimmy Rollins. Matt Holliday also deserves some love. And remember Victor Martinez?
Comments