Joey Votto has likely played his last games on the Reds, and it could very well be his last games in professional baseball as well. Votto’s character has become legendary with the rise of social media, as his candid and jovial personality seem to light up Cincinnati in ways that we, as fans, have never seen before. But as a player, will Votto be remembered as a franchise cornerstone within the state of Ohio or as a Hall of Famer?
I take pride in my Hall of Fame judgement, as I’ve developed a pretty solid gauge over Hall of Fame legitimacy among candidates since I started blogging in 2012. My Veterans’ Committee predictions in 2022 were notoriously horrible, as I went 0-4 in predicting the likes of Tony Oliva, Jim Kaat, Gil Hodges, and Minnie Minoso receiving plaques, but that’s not the same as BBWAA voting. It’s those ten years where my knowledge of the Hall shines the brightest, and I’m excited to flex those muscles with the Canadian maestro with the bat in Votto. Believe it or not, I do think he’s a Hall of Famer, but he’s one strange case.
The rubric I use to judge potential Hall of Famers is three-tiered: longevity, consistency, and memorability. Longevity refers to the counting stats that have become ubiquitous amongst baseball fans (your 500 homers or 3,000 hits, for example). Consistency has to do with seasonal averages, like batting average and ERA. And memorability is a hodgepodge of accolades, including All-Star appearances, seasonal awards, and the overall impact that a player has on the game of baseball. While I used to try to quantify in percentages how much each of these tiers matter, I refuse to do that in Votto’s case because his numbers might be viewed by some as misleading. Here’s the rub. In 17 years of MLB service, Joey Votto has accumulated 2,135 hits, 356 home runs, 1,144 runs batted in, and a .294 batting average. Those numbers are borderline HoF at an initial glance, but where his true Cooperstown candidacy comes into play is his on-base percentage and, transitively, his OPS.
Now, why would a stat like OBP make or break a potential Hall of Famer? Well, it wouldn’t usually, but Votto’s case is such an anomaly that it’s really the only thing to look at. Throughout his career, Votto has always been known as the on-base guy. His thought leadership on batting is quite well-known around the league and his reputation as someone who could talk anyone’s ear off about the art of swinging a baseball bat grows by the second. With that reputation comes the numbers. Votto is a seven-time OBP champ and has topped .400 in a season nine times. His .409 career OBP ranks 42nd on the all-time list, with most of the guys in front of him either playing over 80 years ago, in the Hall, or both (the only current batters ahead of him on the all-time OBP list are, naturally, Mike Trout and Juan Soto). And it doesn’t stop there; a superb OBP and solid slugging percentage has gifted Votto with a lifetime OPS mark of .921, good for a 144 career OPS+. For reference, my vague benchmark for a Hall of Fame-worthy OPS+ is 125, so 144 is pretty spectacular.
All of this is to say that Joey Votto’s Hall of Fame chances, much like himself, are one in a million. Mike Mussina’s induction based on his ERA+ certainly helps Votto on the “plus” side of stats. But as for the “memorability” category I mentioned before, Votto epitomizes the concept of the “walks machine” and how an overall proficiency and passion for hitting can yield wonderful results. Joey Votto is a legend with the stick and belongs in Cooperstown not just for all the scuttlebutt surrounding his mystique, but for his ability to walk the walk (literally) as well.
コメント