Welcome to the only solo player profile I’ll be doing for this year’s Baseball Hall of Fame election cycle! I’m taking this opportunity to talk about what a Hall of Famer looks like in the eyes of the BBWAA, based on my almost-12 years of blogging and countless hours pouring over Baseball Reference pages into the dead of night like a gremlin. I’ve discussed this topic a lot throughout my writing tenure on Baseball with Matt, but with every election cycle comes more precedence, and with every change in precedence comes a change in how I look at Hall of Famers. Changes in perception, yes, but not gigantic ones.
In my last post, I talked about the overall categories of a typical BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot, and, as per usual, there weren’t that many players that fit the “Shoo-In” category. In 2024’s case, it’s only one: Adrian Beltre. Now, I should note that I became a baseball fan when Beltre was already an established hitter in the league (Beltre debuted in 1998 with the Dodgers, a decade before I watched my first full season of Major League Baseball), but that shouldn’t count towards my lack of credibility. Why? Because stats are stats and accolades are accolades. I really don’t care if a player didn’t “look” like a Hall of Famer while playing because to suggest that you have to watch every plate appearance that a hitter takes to be the ultimate judge of their Cooperstown legitimacy is irrational.
So, what authority do I have to put Adrian Beltre in the “Shoo-In” category? Well, not much, but I have a Hall of Fame measurement device that should do the trick, nonetheless. I call it the “Longevity-Consistency-Memorability” model. I’m going to forgo the percentages I used to use with each of those three categories, but the gist of the model is that a player should first be judged on their longevity, then their consistency, and then their memorability. Under the longevity category you have your counting stats, your “500 career home runs” or “3,000 career hits” thresholds. Beltre met one of those thresholds during his career, collecting 3,166 lifetime base hits, and came close to eclipsing the other, posting 477 career home runs. If you reach these heralded thresholds sanctified by decades of America’s pastime, you’re a Hall of Famer (unless your ties to steroids are too big an issue). That’s why Beltre is a shoo-in, plain and simple.
But let’s say Beltre had 2,999 career hits. Would he still be a Hall of Famer? Based on some of his other stats, absolutely. The consistency category considers seasonal averages, stuff like batting average and OPS+, but also looks at the trajectory of a player’s counting stats. For example, Vlad Guerrero Sr. got absolutely victimized in his first year on the ballot because he only played 15 years, but was well on his way to rewriting the hitting record books, had he played longer (the average Hall of Fame career is roughly 20 years, while the shortest for a hitter is Kirby Puckett at 12 years). Beltre happened to age well into his late 30s, so even though his .286 batting average and 116 OPS+ aren’t your usual Hall of Fame numbers, his 151 hits, 23 homers, and 81 RBIs over a 21-year span are definitely good enough for me.
And finally, the memorability category. All your MVPs, Gold Gloves, All-Star Games, and other awards are thrown into this pot that ultimately tries to justify a player’s character. It’s the most overblown of the categories by casuals, but it certainly matters. Brooks Robinson’s Gold Gloves make him a Hall of Famer, so why couldn’t that same thought process help Beltre? Well, considering Beltre dominated the third base position like Robinson, it does! All in all, there’s no doubt that Adrian Beltre will be a Hall of Famer, but in next week’s post I’ll try to rationalize my takes on the entire ballot using my “L-C-M” model. Until then!
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