Several weeks ago, I debuted a new stat called Earned Run Average Against (or ERAA, for short), that attempts to rationalize an opposing pitcher’s ERA if the same batter took every plate appearance. The statistic is purely theoretical, considering a batter can’t bat twice in a row, let alone at every spot in the batting order. Still, though, ERAA attempts to value a batter’s production based on the benchmarks we use to judge pitchers, and it’s pretty eye-opening to look at the numbers, which can be viewed by clicking the Excel sheet below (the previous edition of the sheet had only been updated as of mid-August, but this one covers the whole season).
With the World Series upon us and the offseason growing ever closer, I figured it would be a good chance to evaluate some potential moves based on the 2022 ERAA leaders. Feel free to reference the above spreadsheet as we dive into some of the most valuable players in baseball who could be on the move before April of 2023.
Rob Refsnyder
The Red Sox are in an awkward spot this winter. After both buying and selling at the August 2nd Trade Deadline and exchanging in futile contract talks with stars Xander Boegarts and Rafael Devers, it seems that their roster is in flux. But one person on the BoSox who has proven their worth in the short term is Rob Refsnyder. The former Yankee product exploded onto the scene this past season (in limited playing time), posting an ERAA of 6.73 in 57 games played. Given his plate production and his versatility in the field (he played at every outfield position and has touched every infield position except for shortstop and catcher in his career), the Red Sox have plenty of options with using him, whether that be as a Boegarts/Devers full-time replacement (with Trevor Story presumably moving back to his original position of SS) or as a trade piece in a larger deal that would hopefully yield a substantial return. Refsnyder is 31, so his “peak” is probably limited, but there’s a possibility that we see his name in the tabloids by January.
Joey Meneses
The fallout of the Juan Soto-Josh Bell trade didn’t end up being so terrible for the Nationals. Well, Luke Voit would say otherwise (along with the Nats’ record by season’s end), but I digress, because Joey Meneses sent shockwaves throughout baseball when he was brought up in August. The 30-year-old rookie posted a 6.48 ERAA in 56 games, possibly establishing himself as the next Yuli Gurriel (contact-hitting first baseman who debuted in his 30s). The Nationals don’t have a ton of leverage in terms of dealing Meneses, but there are so many teams that could use his value that I wouldn’t be surprised if the Nationals sell high on Joey. I think it’s a long shot, but we’ll have to see.
Trayce Thompson
Klay’s brother showed up for the Dodgers when they really needed him in 2022. The outfielder posted a 6.29 ERAA in 80 games with San Diego and Los Angeles (6 games with the Padres, 74 with the Dodgers), making him an easy trade chip for the Dodgers if they want to acquire more depth or another star. Thompson’s cheap and lengthy contract (he won’t be a free agent until 2026) is sure to fit into some package that the Dodgers could attempt to finagle. Could he be in Anaheim by the time the 2023 Deadline wraps up in a deal for Shohei Ohtani? Probably not, but that would be insane, right?
Joc Pederson
Improving his batting average by 35 points and posting the 17th best ERAA in 2022 (min. 50 Pas) at 6.36 will only prove fruitful for Joc Pederson, whose one-year, $6 million contract that he signed with the Giants for 2022 is sure to grow in average annual value for 2023 and beyond. Joc’s subpar 2021 season with the Cubs and Braves proved to be a fluke, as he made his first All-Star Game with his hometown team, who are now looking to sign big-named free agents this offseason, namely Trea Turner and Aaron Judge. That gives Pederson a ton of leverage to ask for a massive pay raise from the orange and black or to negotiate with teams who need a good outfielder (which is, spoiler alert, a lot of them).
Nathaniel Lowe
A breakout season from Lowe that saw him post an ERAA of 6.16 has put the Rangers in a precarious position this winter. Posting a 68-94 record after spending half a billion dollars cumulatively to secure their middle infield for the next half-decade is not a great look. Sure, Marcus Semien and Corey Seager had okay-ish years, but the person who should be the most upset about his team’s lack of production is Lowe. The Rangers have a lot of money to spend this offseason and a lot of holes to plug. If they can’t use their resources to shore up their weaknesses, perhaps we see the former Ray on the move yet again.
Nolan Arenado
A resurgent season for the best-fielding third baseman in baseball might prove to be beneficial for his wallet. The Nolan Arenado trade rumors were extremely quiet at the Deadline this summer, but now the opt-out rumors are heating up. After a season in which Nolan posted an ERAA of 6.42, reestablishing his bat as one of the most potent in the league, it seems increasingly clear that he will enact his opt-out clause with the Cardinals and test free agency. There are plenty of teams that could use his presence in their lineups, of course. The only question is whether he can maintain that top-20 ERAA as he ages deeper into his 30s. As they say, time will tell. It will be an interesting offseason for Arenado, who could sign a one-year deal or an eight-year deal, and either contract wouldn’t shock me.
There are other guys I could’ve listed in this post, like Tyler Stephenson, Jeff McNeil, Taylor Ward, or Danny Jansen, but my point with this write-up is not to start dumb rumors or drum up biased predictions. Baseball is fueled by value, and so are transactions. ERAA is my way of displaying value in a tangible manner to make sense of why some teams might want one player over another. So just know that if any of these guys get dealt or sign elsewhere, I’m a wizard.
Oh, and by the way? Phillies in seven.
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