In the grand tradition of all things MLB offseason, it’s time for my awards predictions, which I have yet to ace in the twelve years I’ve been an amateur baseball scribe. This year, however, feels different. I’m older, I’m wiser, and the award winners feel much easier than in eras past (click here for the 24 finalists). I don’t think there’s any use in delaying the inevitable, so let’s do some predictions, shall we?
Manager of the Year
Ah, yes, the most enigmatic of the end-of-year baseball trophies. A mixture of Most Valuable Senior Citizen and Most Improved Team, the Manager of the Year is always the hardest to predict and the least memorable. However, because it gets the MLB seal of approval as an official award, we gotta talk about it. In the AL, Kevin Cash is going for his third MoY in the last four seasons, while Bruce Bochy looks to capitalize on a World Series championship with the Rangers by collecting even more hardware. But because of the Orioles’ first 100-win season since 1980, I see this honor going to Baltimore manager Brandon Hyde. Not much to say here besides the fact that a pretty average roster “managed” to win triple-digit games in 2023. Huzzah. In the NL, Skip Schumaker burst onto the scene as a first-time manager of the Miami Marlins and led them to their first non-COVID playoffs since 2003. South Beach, it is.
Rookie of the Year
Now that we got that out of the way (sorry to all you manager stans out there), let’s look at the unbelievable and plentiful 2023 rookies. I mean, in the NL, you could’ve had the entire 2023 Reds roster as the finalists, except for the fact that the actual finalists are also MVP and Cy Young candidates in the Senior Circuit. Speedster Corbin Carroll of the D-Backs and ghost fork thrower Kodai Senga of the Mets put together some stellar campaigns. While I think Senga had one of the best Japanese rookie pitching seasons since Disuke, Corbin Carroll is your NL RoY. He just had one, if not, the greatest baserunning season of all time, while showing tons of pop at the dish. He was an All-Star and an important contributor to the Snakes’ upstart success this season, and although these awards are determined before the playoffs, Carroll’s October play certainly helps him in hindsight.
The AL has a similarly packed finals, this time featuring a hydra of worthy candidates in Tanner Bibee of the Guardians, Tristan Casas of the Red Sox, and the guy who I think will win this award, Gunnar Henderson of the Orioles. Henderson has his reputation going for him (he had been a highly-regarded prospect for what seemed like forever before joining Charm City full-time), but he also led all AL rookies in fWAR and played a more valuable position than Casas (SS/3B versus Casas at 1B). Their hitting output stats like home runs and batting average are pretty comparable, as is their OPS+, but in an age of analytics, it’s Henderson who stands out. Bibee had a good season on the mound for Cleveland, but it’s Gunnar.
Cy Young Award
Gerrit Cole of the Yankees has led in this category since August. The rule changes have certainly altered how pitchers are evaluated because, to be frank, there weren’t a lot of Cy Young-worthy AL hurlers in 2023. Cole led the Junior Circuit in ERA while also leading the league in innings pitched and coming in second in strikeouts. Kevin Gausman and Sonny Gray had solid seasons, but this should be unanimous, and that’s coming from the objective part of my brain and not the Yankees part. The NL ERA leader should also win the Cy Young. Blake Snell is going for his second Cy in his career in a race against NL West preseason favorites Zac Gallen and Logan Webb. Snell’s final stats are heavily weighted by his otherworldly final 23 starts, in which he posted a Bob Gibson-esque 1.20 ERA. Give me Snellzilla.
MVP
Shohei Ohtani and Ronald Acuna, Jr. have run away with this award since April. Shohei is obviously Shohei and will garner a contract Babe Ruth couldn’t ever comprehend (as if he’s still alive), while Acuna’s membership of the 40 homers-70 steals club perfectly epitomizes how the game has changed, thanks to the rule changes. However, it’s worth noting that the batters finishing behind Shohei and Ronald would be MVPs in almost any other season. Corey Seager, Freddie Freeman, and Mookie Betts had unbelievable years. Too bad the frontrunners had generational years.
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