We’re less than two weeks away from Opening Day, which means that it seems appropriate to do some awards predictions! I’ll keep my introduction short and sweet for this one: Relievers of the Year (because I love relievers), Cy Young winners, Rookies of the Year, and MVPs. No 2022 repeats, and only one Yankee. Let’s do it!
Mo Rivera and Trevor Hoffman Relievers of the Year
There’s only been one reliever in the recent history of this award to win it without recording any saves, but he’ll be forced to close some games in 2023 with the departure of his fellow winner (three-time winner, to be specific) which left the closer role on his team wide open. I’m of course referring to Devin Williams, whose “air-bender” changeup has not lost its bite since he debuted it in 2020. Williams led all relievers in baseball in shut-downs last year, a win probability stat that awards you for raising your team’s odds of winning a game, and is primed for another great season, this time as the Brewers closer. The only thing besides an injury that could mess up his candidacy would be if he gets traded, similarly to Josh Hader last year.
As for the AL, Clay Holmes will hopefully leave his shaky second half of 2022 behind him and return to the form that made him an All-Star. Holmes is a ground ball machine, thanks to his dominating sinker, and ground balls are the quickest way to generate outs (strikeouts would be better, but grounders have their place). His excellency will be tested early with the Yankees’ injuries in the bullpen to start the season, but I see no reason why the former high school valedictorian can’t think his way out of this problem, thanks to his proven success.
Cy Young Awards
Ok, so I said no repeats, but I didn’t say anything about top-2 finishers. Dylan Cease of the White Sox and Max Fried of the Braves each came in second place in their respective Cy Young races last year, but I can see them each coming in first in ’23. Cease’s gross slider allowed a .128 batting average last year and produced the best run value of any pitch thrown in the game last year by a long shot (-36, which is insane in it of itself, but the second-place finisher was Sandy Alcantara’s changeup, all the way back at -25). Fried, meanwhile, is one of the most textbook pitchers in baseball, producing way-above-average hard-hit rate, walk rate, and chase rate, with each of his pitches finishing last year with negative run values (which is good, by the way).
Rookies of the Year
Masataka Yoshida is no rookie when it comes to baseball in general, but considering he’s an AL rookie this year with the Red Sox, he’s up for this award. Yoshida is a batting and on-base machine, and there’s no doubt that he will contribute for Boston in ’23 in those regards. The only problem might be the translation of power between Japanese professional ball and Major League Baseball, which doesn’t have a great track record. Still, there’s no doubt Yoshida is great, as evidenced by his 2023 WBC performance, so I’ll take him as my AL RoY. As for the NL award, I’m going out-of-the-box. James Outman has impressed Dodger coaches this spring, and even pitcher Daniel Hudson compared him to Babe Ruth. The 25-year-old center fielder prospect is coming off a minor league season in which he batted .294 with 31 homers. He's really good, but there are guys ahead of him in the depth chart. Still, those guys are David Peralta, Trayce Thompson, Chris Taylor, and maybe Jayson Heyward, so that’s not an impossible mountain to climb.
MVPs
Finally, the moment we’ve been waiting for! Who will win the MVPs?!?!?! Well, to disappoint you a little, my answers aren’t that “sexy”, but they certainly aren’t favored. Yordan Alvarez and Austin Riley are both stars on good teams, the Astros and Braves, respectively. Both have shown their struggles in the past, but have rectified those struggles (Alvarez more than Riley, but I digress) to become mainstays at the All-Star Game. This is the year when both of them take a leap forward and establish themselves as two of the best hitters in the sport. I’m way more confident in Alvarez here, but I still like Riley’s chances of continuing to evolve, especially with the Braves’ loss of Dansby Swanson in the off-season. Baseball is all about keeping value consistent and adjusting to do so. I see no reason why Riley couldn’t have done so heading into 2023.
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