And with that, the 2022 Major League Baseball season has come to an end, and what a ride it was, particularly during the World Series. Tied after the first off-day, the Phillies made a statement in Game 3 at the Bank by hitting five home runs and shutting out the Astros. Then they proceeded to score four runs in the next three games (and get no-hit), losing all three and the series to the always-more-dominant team, the Houston Astros. Complain all you want about the cheating scandal, but only five players remain on Houston’s roster on 2017, NOT including All-Stars Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, the future of the offense, along with a ton of pitchers that, analytically and literally, make up the best staff in the American League. So, what’d we learn?
The main reason why the Astros were able to suffocate the Phillies chances of coming back in the series was strikeouts. The Fightins set a record in the 2022 Fall Classic by striking out 71 times, trumping the previous record of 70 held by the 2020 Rays (in six games) and the 2001 Diamondbacks (in seven games). A common theme I’ve seen among recent MLB seasons, as strikeout rates have risen, is that strikeouts stink and the ancillary statistics and attributes that come with strikeout-heavy lineups are even worse. The Yankees succumbed to their boom-or-bust tendencies against the Astros in the ALCS in a similar swing-and-a-miss fashion as the boom-or-bust Phillies did in these past six games. From a value-based perspective, there’s nothing worse for run production than strikeouts (especially when a K comes down by three runs in the eighth with two outs on a strike-three foul bunt, Kyle Schwarber). The greatest example I have of the reverse of this must be the 2014 and 2015 Royals, who were famous for never striking out and producing an ungodly amount of runs without the long ball in the spacious Kauffman Stadium. Maximizing plate appearances is one of the most important jobs of a batter, and a strikeout is the antithesis of that mentality.
The Phillies, in this regard, were screwed from the start. Their lineup is filled with power hitters that swing out of their shoes, as opposed to the well-rounded Astros lineup that was second to the Guardians in all of baseball during the 2022 regular season with a 19.5% strikeout rate. Their lineup is also much more balanced, with proven contact specialist Jose Altuve and rookie phenom Jeremy Pena leading the charge, setting up the dangerous Alex Bregman and the aforementioned Alvarez and Tucker. On the pitching side, the Phillies have had bullpen problems for years, while the Astros staff ranks among the best in all sorts of categories. Their analytical investment has been well-documented, and the due diligence has been shown greatly. Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Christian Javier, and Jose Urquidy are not only all good, but uniquely good, while the entire bullpen is made up of stars. I hate the old adage that pitching wins champions. An all-around team wins championships, and the Astros have proven that once again. The definition of a dynasty is a murky one in sports, but there’s no doubt in my mind that this Astros team is at the very least a juggernaut.
So, where do the Phillies, and any other team not named the Astros, go from here? Any professional sporting association is a copycat league by nature, so most MLB teams with enough monetary and/or general baseball capital will leverage their assets to emulate the Astros strategy. But sports teams can carry plenty of inertia season-over-season, and the ‘Stros don’t have a ton of outstanding free agents (and Yordan Alvarez is signed to a ridiculously team-friendly long-term deal for the next half-decade). All I’ll say is this: the Astros are built for success for a long time and deserve all the praise they’re receiving. The Dodgers were obviously the best team in 2022, but the Astros are the best franchise in baseball. As much as it pains me to say the following as a Yankees fan yearning for the same competency as the World Series champions, congratulations, Houston.
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