Hall of Fame season is officially upon us!
For those of you who haven’t read my stuff for a long time, this is the time during the year when I, as an amateur baseball journalist (and real financial journalist) truly shine. I’ve written the “If I Had a Hall of Fame Ballot” posts for almost a decade at this point, and I can safely say that I’m almost perfect when it comes to voting in Hall of Famers. What I mean by that is I vote in everyone who has actually been voted in and I keep out almost everyone who has been kept out. Part of that has to do with me being anti-steroid, but I digress.
The reason why I’ve developed a keen eye for Hall of Famers is that my voting criteria is largely based on precedence. I optimize my ballots based on past winners, and in the aggregate, the BBWAA voters tend to agree with me. I call my general Hall of Fame legitimacy rubric the 55/35/10 rule. 55% of HoF legitimacy comes from a player’s career totals (the longevity category, if you will); 500 home runs and 3,000 hits are great metrics in this regard. 35% of legitimacy comes from a player’s seasonal averages (the consistency category, if you will); this includes stats like ERA (I like 3.40 as a good benchmark) and OPS+ (125 is my number). And the last 10% is memorability; this is where end-of-year awards and All-Star Games come into play, but it’s more so a category concerned with a player’s legacy. “Can you tell the story of baseball without mentioning said player?” It's that sort of thing.
With that in mind, here are my picks for the 2023 Baseball Hall of Fame class. But just a couple of caveats first. No controversies. That means no steroid-users (sorry, A-Rod), no domestic abuse scandals (I’m looking at you, Omar Vizquel), and no sign-stealing scandals (Carlos Beltran, that would be you). Beltran’s candidacy will get clearer in future years, but I’m not giving him the benefit of the doubt at the moment. Also, I should note that I’m not the kind of voter who says, “Oh, this guy doesn’t deserve to be inducted this time around, but maybe I'll vote for him next year.” If you’re a Hall of Famer in my eyes, you’re a Hall of Famer. With that, let’s get to it!
Scott Rolen
You can be a Hall of Famer for lots of different reasons, and defensive metrics have helped Rolen’s case in recent years, but he’s a solid hitting option for the Hall as well. Besides his eight Gold Gloves, Rolen put up a career 122 OPS+ with 2,077 hits in 17 years. Mike Mussina’s induction in 2019 establishes those “Plus” statistics as relevant benchmarks for the Cooperstown conversation, so I think Rolen deserves the praise that he’s received.
Todd Helton
I can’t emphasize enough how big of a Todd Helton fan I’ve been throughout his entire time on the ballot. He is simply the embodiment of the Colorado Rockies. 1,406 RBIs and a .316 batting average in 17 years are absolutely Hall-worthy. Also, that .414 on-base percentage from a modern perspective is insane.
Billy Wagner
Closers get the cold shoulder when it comes to the Hall of Fame. Even though I understand the reasoning behind that, I refuse to acknowledge it as binding. Wagner had 422 saves with five franchises across his 16-year career. His 2.31 lifetime ERA and .998 lifetime WHIP are both second all-time among closers, only to Mariano Rivera.
Andruw Jones
The low batting average and OPS+ hurts Jones, but there’s no doubt that he accumulated plenty of Hall of Fame hype throughout his career. He’s regarded as one of the best-fielding center fielders of all time, and his 434 career home runs in 17 seasons are not bad, either.
Jeff Kent
377 home runs, 1,518 RBIs, a .290 batting average, and a 123 OPS+ are all impressive numbers. Now if you put those numbers in the context that Kent was a second baseman, all of those stats look just a little bit better.
Torii Hunter
Hunter’s candidacy is probably the toughest for me. Like Rolen and Jones, Hunter’s chances at Cooperstown are weighed heavily on his legacy with the glove, but he had a decent bat, too. I think with Hunter, you have to look at how long he was who he was at the plate. Being relevant for almost two decades really matters.
What do you think of my picks? Feel free to tweet me your ballots by tagging @BaseballwMatt on Twitter. The 2023 Baseball Hall of Fame class will be announced this Tuesday, January 24, at 6pm on MLB Network.
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