Well, Luis Arraez has done something else besides have one of the slowest, most accurate swings in all of baseball. He has also set the Trade Deadline forums ablaze after his pre-Cinco de Mayo move from Miami to San Diego. Now, everyone and their mother is talking about the July 30th Deadline as if it’s tomorrow. While I usually hold off on talking about the best Trade Deadline in sports until the month of the All-Star Game, when the Deadline narratives started to really build up, this season started to feel different because of the back-to-back batting champ’s trade. So, without further delay, here are some bold predictions for the month-and-a-half leading up to the 2024 MLB Trade Deadline.
One: The Astros will not sell. The lunacy of Jeff Lunhow’s wife aside, the Astros have been a major talking point and disappointment in an injury-plagued 2024 season for Space City. Jose Abreu’s release and the marred pitching staff are just some of the few reasons why the seven-time ALCS playmate will not be returning to the penultimate stage, despite an otherworldly start from Kyle Tucker (who is also now injured). Still, this team has plenty of pride, so even with impending free agents and players that would make sense in trades, like Alex Bregman or Ryan Pressly, this dynasty in the trash can (joke intended) will stand pat. The trio of star-studded trades that the 2021 Cubs made to fully dismantle their 2016 championship team took place five years after the Billy Goat Curse was broken. The Astros won the World Series two years ago. It's still fresh.
Two: The Yankees will not buy. While there are always rumors swirling in the Bronx, with most of them surprisingly coming true, and with slumping stars such as Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres, and DJ LeMahieu, you would expect the Bronx Bombers to come out guns blazing in a Wild West of a Deadline. But maybe, just maybe, they hold off on making any big trades. Why? Well, presently, the Yanks have the best offense and pitching staff in terms of runs across MLB. Their run differential is the best in baseball. Speaking for the future’s sake, a lot of the prospects in their system are highly-touted and could be used in more prudent ways down the road. Remember: Spencer Jones was going nowhere in the Juan Soto trade, even though they were getting an outfielder in return. I just don’t get the sense that Hal and Co. are that eager to swing any blockbusters this year.
Three: Pete Alonso will be a Mariner by August. The Mets are bad. Really bad. And they also have a high payroll. A really high payroll. They don’t have a ton of leverage in terms of signing the Polar Bear to a long-term deal when the All-Star first baseman hits free agency after this season. So, I think they wise up, cut their losses, and ship Pete to the PNW. The Mets and Mariners have made trades before. Just ask Ed-lose about that. Also, the Mariners have a pretty bad offense with little production from their DH spot, yet they’re a team that everyone is expecting to buy at the Deadline. To me, it seems like a great fit, but it’s not that hot a take. I’ve seen plenty of pundits putting Alonso in Seattle by the time the Deadline passes. I like this deal. Really like it.
Four: The Blue Jays will trade Bo Bichette. Bo knows that Bo is having an off year. Everyone does. The guy that a lot of people probably picked to win the AL batting title this season is currently batting at a .237 clip. Add in the fact that the Jays are fighting with the Rays to escape the chasm that is last place in the AL East, and you have a recipe for a blockbuster. While Vladimir Guerrero Jr. might be the bigger name for trade talks in Toronto, Vladdy is having a so-so season that other teams probably won’t bite at. Bichette, on the other hand, has not done well in arbitration talks north of the border, so both sides are probably read for a “mutual end” to the relationship. They already let Cavan Biggio go to LA. What’s stopping another Baby Jay from leaving the nest?
Five: The 2024 MLB Trade Deadline will be a show for the ages. While the names at the Deadline are less exciting than in years past, it seems that the sheer volume that everyone is forecasting will create a maelstrom of trades that is sure to excite MLB fanbases. I mean, the entire Chicago White Sox could be wearing different uniforms in a few months. Same thing with the legacy Cardinals stars. Again, this isn’t looking like it’ll be a star-studded Trade Deadline as much as it’ll be an explosive Trade Deadline, but that’s all I need to satiate my transactional taste buds.
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