The 2024 Major League Baseball regular season begins tomorrow (even though Opening Day is technically March 28)! No offseason blogging regiment would be complete without my predictions of future award winners, so here they are for 2024. Because Manager of the Year is such a weird award, I'll stick with the three other main ones (Rookie of the Year, Cy Young, and MVP) and the Relievers of the Year. Let's do it!
Trevor Hoffman NL Reliever of the Year: Justin Lawrence, Colorado Rockies
Why? Let's start off with a weird one. Lawrence jumped on the scene last year in Denver on the back of his strong sweeper, the newest pitch to the MLB encyclopedia. Lawrence's 2023 saw him finish with a 3.72 ERA and 11 saves, but on the back of his horizontal slider, I say he ups the ante and makes an All-Star team en route to the Reliever of the Year award in the NL. Call me crazy all you want, but if this hits, I'll be over the moon.
Mariano Rivera AL Reliever of the Year: Josh Hader, Houston Astros
Why? Yes, I hate it. Hader signed a five-year, $95 million contract with Space City this offseason after spending the first part of his career in the National League, where he won the Hoffman version of this award three times. Hader's 2023 was pretty immaculate, as he posted a 1.28 ERA and collected 33 saves for the Padres, losing the Hoffman to former teammate Devin Williams of the Brewers. Twins reliever Jhoan Duran and Orioles closer Felix Bautista will start the season on the IL, so to me, this award comes down to Hader and Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase, but I'll go with Hader.
AL Rookie of the Year: Evan Carter, Texas Rangers
Why? It was beyond easy to pick Randy Arozarena to win the AL RoY in 2021 after the crazy postseason he had in 2020. Thankfully I did make that pick, and I hope to hit on the same logic from three years ago, this time with Evan Carter. Carter had an OPS of 1.058 (which was good for an OPS+ of 182) in 23 games at the end of the last season, then batted .300 for Texas in the postseason en route to the franchise's first World Series championship. While he could be challenged by teammate Wyatt Langford, who went fourth overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, I have to stick to my guns and pick the 21-year-old Carter.
NL Rookie of the Year: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
Why? It feels too easy to pick any of the Asian-born stars for the NL RoY, especially Yoshinobu Yamamoto, so I'll stick with last year's number one overall pick in the MLB Draft. Skenes impressed at LSU and helped the Tigers win the 2023 College World Series, earning him his selection to the Steel City last July. He has a killer pitch mix and godly velocity compared to his awkward arm slot. He's a true joy to watch. The only problem is that he's not slated to be with the Pirates Major League roster on Opening Day, but I think that problem will get rectified rather quickly.
NL Cy Young: Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks
Why? Plain and simple, Gallen might be the next great pitcher in Major League Baseball. A rocky ERA last year of 3.47 might throw off that analysis, but he has quickly established himself as the next great National League ace with 2024 Cy Young favorite, Spencer Strider. Gallen finished third in Cy Young voting to fellow NL West pitchers Blake Snell and Logan Webb, but this is the year that Gallen’s lofty expectations are fulfilled. If you want a backup pick here, I'd take Webb as the true innings-eater of the National League last year.
AL Cy Young: Corbin Burnes, Baltimore Orioles
Why? The AL field for Cy Young worthy pitchers is not off to a great start. Gerrit Cole could be out for most of the season, Sonny Gray is now on the NL's Cardinals, and Kyle Bradish will start the season on the IL. So, I'll go with Bradish's teammate, the former Brewers ace who got traded to Charm City not even a month ago. Burnes is a strikeout machine, leading the NL in the category in 2022 and completing his third straight year of 200 or more strikeouts in 2023. There's the obvious “contract year” boost for Burnes, who will be a free agent after the 2024 season, but really, I just think he's a great pitcher. I'd take George Kirby on the Mariners as my backup pick.
The MVPs: Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros, and Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves
Why? That's right: I'm going with the same predictions as I did last year for largely the same reasons. Alvarez has a wide-open shot at the AL's award with Shohei Ohtani out of the AL and Aaron Judge always plagued by the injury bug. Riley has a tougher road ahead, especially considering two of his Atlanta teammates finished one and four in 2023's NL MVP voting (Ronald Acuna and Matt Olson, respectively), but I've always had faith in the slick-hitting third baseman in Riley. He got off to a slow start last year, but ended the season with 37 homers and a seventh-place finish in the MVP vote. All I'm saying is don't be surprised to hear the 2024 NL MVP acceptance speech with a southern twang (Riley is from Memphis). It's a longshot, but let's just wait and see.
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