Anthony Volpe walked in his first Major League plate appearance to open up the third inning of yesterday’s Giants-Yankees Opening Day matchup in the Bronx. As soon as Volpe reached first base and Yankees lead-off hitter DJ LeMahieu stepped to the plate, I turned to the gentleman sitting next to me at Yankee Stadium and yelled over the crowd noise, “Volpe’s gonna steal!”
Volpe showed off his speed in the Minor Leagues and the Yankees are prone to stealing these days, so it wasn’t an outlandish prediction. Still, it was no guarantee, especially considering how much Giants pitcher Logan Webb was eager to keep Volpe at first, as evidenced by Webb's one attempted pickoff of Volpe while the rookie shortstop was standing on first base. I won’t say that Volpe was toying with Webb (he seems too humble at this stage to be that confident), but the fact that Volpe was halfway to second base on every other pitch that Webb made to LeMahieu and induced a mound disengagement from Webb so strategically makes me think that Volpe was trying to manipulate the MLB's new rules to his advantage against the Giants’ sinker-throwing ace. Then, on an 0-2 pitch, Volpe took off and stole second base easily, while DJ LeMahieu looked at a called strike three.
Volpe’s tango with Webb was my first real time seeing Major League Baseball’s new rules shape the outcome of a stolen base, and it won't be the last, not by a long shot. In the 15 games that kicked off Major League Baseball’s 2023 regular season, runners were 21 of 23 in stolen base attempts, good for a 91.3% success rate. Last year’s Opening Day saw runners go 5 for 9 on stolen base attempts, and we didn’t see 21 successful steals until Day 3 of the 2022 MLB season. All of this has to do with the limited amount of times a runner can be checked while on the basepaths per plate appearance, a new decree imposed on MLB games in an attempt to make the game more entertaining via stolen bases. After all, speed is fun. My first post on the new edition of Baseball with Matt talked about how Rickey Henderson's single-season stolen base record of 130 is easily breakable, and that post came out way before the 2023 rule changes were announced. So, what does this mean for baseball going forward, now that steals have quadrupled?
Well, Opening Day could be an anomaly in terms of larceny, but let’s just say that it won’t be. Let’s say that the new norm for stolen base rates is 91.3%, which is an insane stolen base rate. For reference, statisticians agree that if you’re able to steal second base three-quarters of the time, then you should attempt to steal every time you get the chance. Most teams already did that before the new rules, but above 90%? Is there even a point to swinging anymore if a walk could just be a double? Let’s not go that far, but in all seriousness, what does this mean for baseball strategy?
For me, it means two things off the bat: one, everyone should steal who has some semblance of life in their legs because, from the looks of things, you can. And secondly, and probably more importantly, because everyone should steal anyway, and will most likely be safe, pitchers and catchers should care less about trying to get them out. Pitchers only get two disengagements per plate appearance? Fine, don’t even use one. Stealers are successful almost every time? Fine, catchers don’t even need to throw to second if there’s a risk of that guy on second advancing to third on an errant throw from the backstop.
It'll be interesting to see how stolen base rates age as spring turns to summer, but one thing is clear: steals are certainly back, which is great! But baseball is a living, adaptive game. When pitchers start to get screwed with steals, they will evolve. To what extent, only the baseball gods know.
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