We all love expected stats, right? No? Well, nonetheless, they’re an important way to decipher who is truly “hot” and who is truly “not”. To translate, expected stats factor in stuff like exit velocity and launch angle to judge batted balls by quality of contact, not just their outcomes. So, as we near Memorial Day, the first checkpoint of the Major League Baseball season, I felt as though we’d take a look at a few players who have some interesting discrepancies in some of their expected stats (per Baseball Savant) versus the stats that baseballs fans have known and loved for the last century-and-a-half.
Colt Keith’s Batting Average
We start with someone who was relatively unknown to start the season outside of the Tigers organization, signed a massive extension before making the Major League roster, and has been off to a less-than-stellar start. But has the Tigers’ rookie second baseman really been all that bad? Well, a .162 batting average is the second-worst batting average among qualified hitters in 2024 (only behind Randy Arozarena, of all hitters), but the difference in his batting average and expected batting average of .237, a difference of 75 basis points, is actually third in the league. Now, even a .237 batting average isn’t great, but Keith is a rookie. He’s supposed to go through growing pains, and I think this large gap represents improvement on the horizon for the young 2B in the Motor City.
Brandon Nimmo’s Slugging Percentage
The Mets on-base fiend and 160-million-dollar man got off to a cold start that his slugging percentage would back up. His expect slugging, on the other hand, tells a different story. Because his 2024 barrel rate of 14.1% is currently doubling his career average, his expected slugging of .563 is actually 14th in all of baseball, while his regular slugging of .412 sits at 114th place! This weird bad luck is sure to wear off, especially because Nimmo’s OBP is through the roof, as it always is, at .377. I’m a known Jeff McNeil-head, but it’s hard not to like Brandon Nimmo.
Joc Pederson’s Everything
While there are reasons to be excited about Keith and Nimmo, based on their underlying numbers, Arizona Diamondbacks free agent acquisition Joc Pederson is having a deceptively bad season. Pederson’s .381 expected slugging percentage is 154 points worse than his .535 slugging, the third-worst discrepancy in the league. His expected batting and weighted on-base averages aren’t great, too, even though his wOBA of .411 is good for 11th in baseball (wOBA is on the same scale as OBP, by the way). I bring Joc up in this exercise because he only signed a one-year deal with Arizona, so he could get traded at the Deadline to a team that won’t reap the benefits of Good Joc. It could be an absolutely devious move by the Diamondbacks if they recoup a ton of value for someone who might not be the same player as he was in previous years.
David Robertson’s Batting Average Against
He’s never going to retire, huh? Robertson has been lights out for both the Rangers and my fantasy team this season, pitching to the tune of a miniscule .127 batting average against, the 9th-best BAA in baseball. Here’s where things get spooky. Robertson’s xBAA is 90 points higher at .217, the 6th-worst difference in baseball, but his xwOBA of .273 would actually be tied for the best mark of his career in the Statcast era, if the season ended today! What a weird sport baseball is.
Garrett Crochet’s ERA
Not much has gone right for the White Sox in 2024, but Garrett Crochet is a shrouded bright spot for the rotation. I say that because, while his 5.31 ERA isn’t desirable, especially from your Opening Day starter, his xERA is a miniscule 2.42. That difference of 2.89 (basically a full ace’s ERA) is 9th-best in baseball. Crochet has a lot of years of control left in ChiTown, so you’d think he’s going to improve where it counts. If only things were so simple for the White Sox.
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