We’re almost officially a third of the way through Major League Baseball’s 2023 season, so it’s time for a check-in, don’t you think? But instead of using traditional ways of evaluating our favorite teams and players, I’ll put a little Baseball with Matt spin on it to make this snapshot just a bit more spicy. That’s right, it’s the return of earned run average against (or ERAA for nerds like myself), an ERA stat for hitters that attempts to measure a batter’s contributions on a runs-per-game scale. I’ve written about ERAA a few times before (here, here, and here) and the formula is staying consistent this time around. If you want to follow along with my math, you can find the link to my ERAA spreadsheet at the end of this paragraph, but without further delay, let’s get into it!
Looks like the MVPs are familiar faces
I was quite proud of my proprietary stat ERAA because the AL and NL leaders in the category in 2022 ended up winning the Most Valuable Player awards, which is kind of what the stat is all about: value. Instead of Paul Goldschmidt joining Aaron Judge atop the 2023 version of the leaderboard, however, we have a new challenger who has been in the MVP conversation basically since he debuted for the Braves: Ronald Acuna. Acuna and Judge are #1 and #2 in the ERAA race thus far in 2023 at 8.73 and 8.52, respectively (that is, if you don’t count Christopher Morel insane 10.69 ERAA through 14 games, which I’m not) and the hype around their candidacy when referencing widely-used stats like OPS legitimizes their spots at the apex of the ERAA food chain. As a reminder, saying that Judge and Acuna’s ERAAs are almost at 9 apiece means that if they were able to bat in every spot of the batting order, given their outputs, they would produce about a run an inning. Sheesh, that’s good.
Is Will Smith going to get an extension?
No, I’m not talking about the actor or the reliever. I’m talking about the catcher for the Dodgers, who has long proved to be one of the best offensive-minded players at the position, but is finally reflecting that in terms of ERAA. Out of all hitters with at least 50 plate appearances, Will Smith’s 7.86 ERAA ranks tenth and is the best among catchers. With such a rare talent at a barren position, should the Dodgers consider extending Smith, even though he has two-and-two-thirds years of control left on his rookie deal? If you ask me, I would be patient with it, but I could definitely see LA pulling the trigger on a monster move for their star catcher as early as this season.
Some free agents haven’t panned out, but some have
Mitch Haniger and Jose Abreu make up a crop of hitters debuting for new teams this year that have not gotten off to the best starts. Haniger and Abreu rank 356th and 358th among hitters in 2023 ERAA (Haniger missed some time due to injury), which hasn’t helped the slumping offenses in San Francisco and Houston that they play for. Joey Gallo, meanwhile, is enjoying a renaissance of a season in the North Star State with the Twins. His 6.31 ERAA, good for an ERAA+ of 136 (I consider an ERAA+ above 120 to be good) ranks 44th among hitters with at least 50 PAs, as his team sits in first place on Memorial Day weekend (it’s the AL Central, but still).
The Rays and Diamondbacks are littered with value across their lineups
Tampa Bay and Arizona each have plenty of representation in the top percentiles of the ERAA leaderboards. When looking at the top 30 hitters in the category, the Rays are represented five times (Josh Lowe, Yandy Diaz, Randy Arozarena, Luke Raley, and Taylor Walls), while the D-Backs are repped three times (Geraldo Perdomo, Corbin Carroll, and Lourdes Gurriel). Tampa’s offense has been high-flying and prominently so since April, but the production that Arizona has gotten from its lineup this year has certainly been a surprise, especially considering Perdomo and Carroll are in their first few years in the Majors. One thing to point out with an aggregated average stat like ERAA is that it’s sustainable because the factors that go into it are so multifaceted. What I’m inferring is that you should look out for los Serpientes if your team hasn’t played them yet.
The rule changes are making a difference in ERAA
An ERAA+ of 100 in 2022, which doesn’t count for the same external factors that OPS+ does like park factors, was around 4.29. In 2023, it’s around 4.62 so far. Yes, it’s easy to say that there’s just more offense in baseball nowadays, but it’s more nuanced than that. Steals and singles are up considerably thanks to the new rule changes that have altered Major League Baseball for the better, which means that individual hitters are adding more value at a more consistent pace to each of their times up to bat. A “hitter-friendly environment” doesn’t really tell the whole story of how the game’s been impacted by the shift restrictions, pitch clock, limited pick-off moves, and bigger bases. We’re now in a hitter-friendly era.
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