Let’s face it: MLB contracts are weird. Because of the minor league system in place and the very concept of “service time,” the league-mandated ways that baseball players sign with their teams is unlike any other American professional sport. For those of you who weren’t following baseball news in the middle of January (and rightfully so, debatably), yesterday marked the deadline for teams and players to post arbitration benchmarks. Basically, in Years 4-6 of a player’s rookie contract, an arbitrator can decide how much a player is worth if either side can’t come to a decision on the structure of a one-year deal. Generally, avoiding arbitration is positive, but taking a negotiation to an arbitration hearing isn’t necessarily the end of the world. Still, though, it’s not good.
There were 33 players who could not come to a deal before yesterday’s deadline to post arbitration numbers. This doesn’t mean that they still can’t avoid arbitration, but it does put extra pressure on either side of a given deal to keep the relationship kosher. Here are five of those situations that I think will impact the baseball landscape the most in 2023 and beyond.
Max Fried, Braves
I’m no arbitration expert, but I’d say that going to an arbitration hearing two years in a row does not bode well for an impending free agency negotiation, but that is exactly the situation that Max Fried and the Atlanta Braves are in as of January 14. The difference in each side’s posting is only $1.5 million, but when the principals are as big as they are ($15 million is what Max wants, while the Braves are at $13.5 million), that makes things more interesting. Fried has emerged as one of the best pitchers in the National League on one of the best teams in the National League. It’s also important to note that the Braves are known for paying their stars, but perhaps Mr. Fried doesn’t want Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos to get the best of him. With four years of service time under his belt, the Jewish star starter (get it?) will be a free agent in the same year as the next player on this list, which could pose some interesting questions for teams looking for free agents in 2025.
Corbin Burnes, Brewers
The Brewers aren’t a train wreck, but they’re selling off assets like they kind of are. The Brew Crew could not come to an agreement with Burnes yesterday, and even though they’re about $750k off from each other, it doesn’t feel that way. Burnes, the 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner, has been on the Hot Stove all offseason, as Milwaukee looks to secure a manageable payroll for the next few seasons. With other stars like Willy Adames, Rowdy Tellez, Devin Williams, and Brandon Woodruff to pay, Burnes might be the odd man out in all of this. We’ll see where this negotiation goes, but this might be an easy trade for any team to get an awesome pitcher. The Brewers haven’t had any leverage ever since the team named after beer changed their stadium name to that of an insurance company. Shame.
Jeff McNeil, Mets
Ok, when I made my dumb prediction at the end of my last post about how the Mets could trade Jeff McNeil, I wasn’t that serious. But now I might be. The 2022 NL batting champ is in a crowded Mets lineup with plenty of pop coming up from the minors. Steve Cohen has made it known that Brandon Nimmo is the guy, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Mets lock up Pete Alonso before April. McNeil is a unique bat that’s so good at contact hitting that he imitates a power stroke in his advanced value metrics. I just hope some team sees that and can pounce on this opportunity to get a can’t-miss hitter.
Gleyber Torres, Yankees
Well, this was all but inevitable. Torres is entering the last year of arbitration in 2023 and will surely leave the Yankees in the offseason. The Bombers were trying to shop him for Pablo Lopez at the 2022 Trade Deadline to make room in the infield for Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza. The relationship between Torres and the Yanks is pretty bad from a fan’s perspective at the moment, and, to be honest, who knows if he’s wearing pinstripes by Spring Training?
Bo Bichette, Blue Jays
This is interesting. Out of all the arbitration submissions that happened around the league, Bichette’s gap with Toronto is the biggest at $2.5 million. Bichette doesn’t have a lot of leverage, being so young (it’s his first year of arbitration), but the Blue Jays are in a precarious position right now. After trading Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel so far this offseason, a power vacuum could be brewing north of the border. I would be wary of this negotiation because $2.5 million is a pretty large gap this early into a player’s arbitration cycle. Let’s hope, for the Jays’ sake that taking that kind of risk pays off in the end. Bo’s the back-to-back AL hits champ and has a lot of upside. He could be special.
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