We are officially less than a week away from the 2023 MLB All-Star Game in Seattle, which means we’re really close to when teams start assessing their needs for the Trade Deadline on August 1. July is trade season, both in Major League Baseball and here on Baseball with Matt, which means a continuation of the mini-series I started with last week’s post. I’m not going to try to predict what trades will happen or which teams will be the most active because you can get that information on any trade rumor Twitter (or Threads) account. Instead, allow me to pose this question: how do the new rule changes affect this year’s Deadline?
For those unfamiliar with the sweeping changes that have brought action and a consolidation of said action to modern baseball games, here’s a refresher. Starting this year, MLB added a few rules to make baseball more exciting for fans: a pitch clock, limited mound disengagements for pitchers, bigger bases, and a ban on the infield shift (kind of, but a ban of certain types of shifts nonetheless). The rules have worked out pretty well. Offense is up across the board, steals have exploded on a per-game basis, the duration of MLB games have gone down by almost 30 minutes, and attendance is on pace to rise six to eight percent year-over-year. Actually, the All-Star Game will be a great indicator of baseball’s rise, considering it’s the only real All-Star “game” left and comes during a time in the sports calendar when baseball is the only thing on. If the ASG sees a rise in ratings, then Rob Manfred and the rest of the high brass at Major League Baseball can exhale. But putting aside the “good for baseball” talk for a second, new rules implies a change in how the game is played, which could sway how teams evaluate their situations at the Deadline. That’s what we’re here to discuss.
Alright, so first, batting. As I said, offense is up across the board, but where it’s up the most is easily in the baserunning department: steals. Baserunning can prove to be an important metric teams look at come October, especially when run differentials are restricted and the difference between a win and a loss can be an out on the basepaths. To maintain any sort of parity with teams that are already chock full of speedsters, it would be wise of buyers to look closer at the speediest legs and it would be wise of sellers to mark up the price for said speedsters to maximize their returns because their values will only diminish as the “new rule changes” seem less sexy as the years go on.
With an emphasis on speed comes an emphasis of trading for those that get on base via good contact or walk rates, much to the chagrin of Moneyball’s greatest critics. As I’ve written about previously, on-base percentage is another way of quantifying the amount of times a hitter doesn’t get out (pretty much exactly, without errors or sacrifice hits being taken into account). As a batting order, the goal is to conserve as many outs as possible per inning, and getting a guy who limits the amount of outs he makes could prove important post-Deadline.
The contact rate part of that thesis is kind of the antithesis to the type of pitchers that will probably get traded at the Deadline this year: strikeout throwers. I don’t necessarily mean power pitchers who will blow 100-mph fastballs past their opponents or see them get crushed for long home runs. I’m more referring to the pitchers who have the most diversifiable stuff to get guys out. Strikeouts are usually associated with high pitch counts (obviously not for relievers, but relievers usually have limited pitch mixes anyway), but the most efficient strikeout throwers (except for Spencer “The Wizard” Strider) can throw a lot of types of pitches to get guys out, and the more pitch types you can throw, the deeper you can typically go in games. Innings eaters, perhaps, is the better way to describe the pitchers who are likely to be dealt at the Deadline, a simple replacement of a lesser pitcher. But no matter how I label them, pitchers that are the best at limiting balls in play will sell the most like hotcakes on August 1.
While Major League Baseball might not have anticipated such a staunch strategy change year-over-year from their rule changes (they probably did, to be honest) it certainly makes for great observation as trade season reaches its apex. Even if the types of trades I just described don’t happen, you can use this post as fuel to yell at your favorite team’s leadership for not making the trades that could add the most value to their squads. Or maybe I’m wrong. That’s kind of the beauty of the Deadline, isn’t it?
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